Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes.

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

An anchovy ecosystem indicator of marine predator foraging and reproduction.

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandt's cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.

Revenue loss due to whale entanglement mitigation and fishery closures.

Whale entanglements with fishing gear, exacerbated by changing environmental conditions, pose significant risk to whale populations. Management tools used to reduce entanglement risk, for example temporary area restrictions on fishing, can have negative economic consequences for fishing communities. Balancing whale protection with sustaining productive fisheries is therefore a challenge experienced worldwide. In the California Current Ecosystem, ecosystem indicators have been used to understand the environmental dynamics that lead to increased whale entanglement risk in a lucrative crab fishery. However, an assessment of socio-economic risk for this fishery, as in many other regions, is missing. We estimate retrospectively the losses from ex-vessel revenue experienced by commercial Dungeness crab fishers in California during two seasons subject to whale entanglement mitigation measures using a Linear-Cragg hurdle modeling approach which incorporated estimates of pre-season crab abundance. In the 2020 fishing season, our results suggest total revenues would have been $14.4 million higher in the Central Management Area of California in the absence of closures and other disturbances. In the 2019 fishing season, our results suggest ex-vessel revenues would have been $9.4 million higher in the Central Management Area and $0.3 million higher in the Northern Management Area. Our evaluation should motivate the development of strategies which maximize whale protection whilst promoting productive, sustainable and economically-viable fisheries.

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions.

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Defining mangrove-fisheries: A typology from the Perancak Estuary, Bali, Indonesia.

This study develops a definition of what mangrove-fisheries can encompass, incorporating a broad range of their possible characteristics. A detailed case study was conducted to develop a typology of mangrove-fishing in the Perancak Estuary, Bali, Indonesia, using interview surveys to investigate the fishing activities associated with mangroves. This case study demonstrated the complexity that a mangrove-fishery can entail, where fishing is connected to the mangrove forest by fishers of multiple sectors, functions, locations and temporal scales. Through a comparison with other mangrove-fishing communities in Bali, it also highlighted that mangrove-fisheries are variable even when in close proximity. With particular reference to this case study, a framework was developed as a flexible tool for identifying the multiple dimensions of a mangrove-fishery in a local context. Following this framework should encourage researchers and managers to look outside of the groups of fishers traditionally expected to benefit from mangrove fishing. This will enable the development of a broader definition of mangrove-fisheries in a site specific way. Identifying the full scope of fishers that contribute to or benefit from a mangrove-fishery is the first step towards building management measures that reflect the interests of groups of fishers that may otherwise remain under-represented. This is in line with international efforts for sustainability, especially in promoting small-scale fishers' access to sustainable resources under the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Reasons for seagrass optimism: Local ecological knowledge confirms presence of dugongs.

Dugongs (Dugong dugon) depend on seagrass meadows for food. As such seagrass and dugong conservation should go hand in hand. Assessing dugong populations is notoriously challenging. In the most resource dependent communities Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) is generally high and can provide an alternative to the use of expensive ecological surveys to understand dugong populations and support associated resource management decisions. Residents of the Wakatobi National Park (WNP), SE Sulawesi, Indonesia are highly dependent on marine resources for livelihoods and correspondingly LEK is high. Here LEK documents the presence of D. dugon in the WNP and infers changes in population size. Interviews with local residents in 2012-2013 revealed 99 sightings of dugongs since 1942, 48 of which occurred between 2002 and 2012, with 79.82% of respondents having seen a dugong. Declines in the frequency of sightings within the lifetime of several respondents were reported, respondents speculating that populations are reduced. This information can guide further cooperative research and conservation efforts for the protection of a vulnerable species and the seagrass habitat on which it depends.